Portland Trail Blazers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints24
- Scoot HendersonAssists10
- Jabari WalkerRebounds22
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints21
- Grant WilliamsAssists11
- Marques BoldenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–86
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–86
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound89–86
- Q40.0Davis Bertans misses 23-foot three point shot89–86
- Q41.1Kris Murray enters the game for Dalano Banton89–86
- Q41.1Hornets Full timeout89–86
- Q41.1Jabari Walker makes free throw 2 of 289–86
- Q41.1Jabari Walker makes free throw 1 of 288–86
- Q41.1Brandon Miller personal take foul87–86
- Q41.2Jabari Walker defensive rebound87–86
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:47Jabari Walker makes layup (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 83 – 81 CHA · POR 49% → 70% +21POR 49% → 70%+21 pts
- Q41:09Scoot Henderson makes 17-foot pullup jump shotPOR 85 – 81 CHA · POR 74% → 91% +16POR 74% → 91%+16 pts
- Q41:07Brandon Miller makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davis Bertans assists)POR 85 – 84 CHA · CHA 9% → 37% +28CHA 9% → 37%+28 pts
- Q442.1Deandre Ayton makes two point shotPOR 87 – 84 CHA · POR 66% → 90% +24POR 66% → 90%+24 pts
- Q425.1Brandon Miller makes 15-foot pullup jump shotPOR 87 – 86 CHA · CHA 5% → 29% +24CHA 5% → 29%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hornets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -0.5
- CHA 52%
- Fair odds
- CHA -119
- POR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 106.2 – 107.5 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1348 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | −56 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Vasilije Micic −8, Miles Bridges −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +12 Elo | CHA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 106.329th of 30 |
| 19th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 116.922nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −10.630th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 107.528th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.6 | Defense rating | 118.230th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.3 | Pace | 98.623rd of 30 |
| 28th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–29 | Road vs home | 10–2726th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−56 Elo- Vasilije Micic right shoulder sprain−8 Elo
- Miles Bridges right wrist injury−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.