Miami Heat at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints22
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints21
- Fred VanVleetAssists8
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–104
- Q44.0Jermaine Samuels Jr. makes two point shot119–104
- Q45.0Jermaine Samuels Jr. offensive rebound119–102
- Q45.1Nate Hinton misses two point shot119–102
- Q46.1Nate Hinton offensive rebound119–102
- Q47.0Caleb Martin blocks Aaron Holiday 's 3-foot two point shot119–102
- Q411.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 26-foot step back jumpshot119–102
- Q432.2Nate Williams makes tip shot116–102
- Q432.2Nate Williams offensive rebound116–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:34Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 95 – 88 HOU · HOU 13% → 22% +8HOU 13% → 22%+8 pts
- Q410:11Jalen Green makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotMIA 95 – 91 HOU · HOU 21% → 32% +11HOU 21% → 32%+11 pts
- Q48:29Caleb Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 102 – 93 HOU · MIA 77% → 87% +10MIA 77% → 87%+10 pts
- Q48:01Jeff Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)MIA 102 – 96 HOU · HOU 12% → 22% +10HOU 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q47:16Tyler Herro makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Haywood Highsmith assists)MIA 105 – 96 HOU · MIA 79% → 89% +10MIA 79% → 89%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 51%
- Fair odds
- MIA -103
- HOU +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 107.2 – 106.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | HOU and MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | −15 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +5 Elo | MIA 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 114.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 112.811th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.218th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 112.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 111.07th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 100.813th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 7th of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 26–138th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.