Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints37
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists11
- Tyrese MaxeyRebounds9
Heat- Terry RozierPoints22
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists5
- Kevin LoveRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–105
- Q40.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2109–105
- Q40.1Kevin Love enters the game for Haywood Highsmith108–105
- Q40.1Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2108–105
- Q40.1Haywood Highsmith personal take foul107–105
- Q40.1Caleb Martin personal take foul107–105
- Q42.0Haywood Highsmith lost ball turnover (Tyrese Maxey steals)107–105
- Q45.1Haywood Highsmith offensive rebound107–105
- Q48.0Jimmy Butler misses 23-foot three point pullup jump shot107–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:11Cameron Payne makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 93 – 95 MIA · PHI 25% → 38% +13PHI 25% → 38%+13 pts
- Q43:30Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 103 – 102 MIA · PHI 34% → 56% +23PHI 34% → 56%+23 pts
- Q42:33Tyrese Maxey makes 17-foot step back jumpshotPHI 105 – 102 MIA · PHI 58% → 74% +16PHI 58% → 74%+16 pts
- Q41:33Kelly Oubre Jr. makes two point shotPHI 107 – 102 MIA · PHI 80% → 92% +12PHI 80% → 92%+12 pts
- Q445.1Terry Rozier makes 23-foot step back jumpshotPHI 107 – 105 MIA · MIA 2% → 21% +19MIA 2% → 21%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 61%
- Fair odds
- MIA -127
- PHI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 102.8 – 104.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | +19 | PHI: Missing Tobias Harris −7, De'Anthony Melton −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +75 Elo | MIA 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 109.927th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 108.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +1.517th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 112.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 110.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.2 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 15th of 3019–19 | Road vs home | 20–1718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+38 Elo- Tobias Harris left knee contusion−7 Elo
- De'Anthony Melton back−3 Elo
Heat
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.