Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points32
- Kyle LowryAssists10
- Tobias HarrisRebounds9
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points23
- Kelly OlynykAssists11
- Javon Freeman-LibertyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–120
- Q45.1shot clock turnover135–120
- Q429.1Jalen McDaniels makes 6-foot two point shot (Mouhamadou Gueye assists)135–120
- Q451.1Cameron Payne makes 28-foot three point jumper135–118
- Q41:14KJ Martin enters the game for Nicolas Batum132–118
- Q41:14Paul Reed enters the game for Tobias Harris132–118
- Q41:14Ricky Council IV enters the game for Kelly Oubre Jr.132–118
- Q41:14Jeff Dowtin Jr. enters the game for Kyle Lowry132–118
- Q41:14Jalen McDaniels enters the game for Gradey Dick132–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:27Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 13 – 8 TOR · PHI 62% → 68% +6PHI 62% → 68%+6 pts
- Q32:45Jordan Nwora makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)PHI 93 – 84 TOR · TOR 11% → 17% +6TOR 11% → 17%+6 pts
- Q31:20Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)PHI 98 – 88 TOR · PHI 79% → 86% +8PHI 79% → 86%+8 pts
- Q411:35Jordan Nwora makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 101 – 95 TOR · TOR 17% → 23% +6TOR 17% → 23%+6 pts
- Q411:20Nicolas Batum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Lowry assists)PHI 104 – 95 TOR · PHI 77% → 86% +9PHI 77% → 86%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3
- PHI 62%
- Fair odds
- PHI -138
- TOR +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 112.0 – 109.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1363 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −95 | −102 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −44 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −22, Chris Boucher −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +82 Elo | PHI 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 112.619th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.1 | Points allowed | 118.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −5.524th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 110.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 116.325th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.2 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 15th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 13–2424th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−95 Elo- Tyrese Maxey left hip injury−44 Elo
Raptors
−102 Elo- RJ Barrett return to competition reconditioning−22 Elo
- Chris Boucher right knee injury−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 3–0 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.