Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Chet HolmgrenPoints22
- Jaylin WilliamsAssists12
- Luguentz DortRebounds8
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points25
- Joel EmbiidAssists7
- Cameron PayneRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–109
- Q40.0Chet Holmgren defensive rebound105–109
- Q40.2(00:00.9) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)105–109
- Q40.2Tobias Harris misses free throw 2 of 2105–109
- Q40.2Tobias Harris makes free throw 1 of 2105–109
- Q40.2Chet Holmgren personal take foul105–108
- Q41.1Tobias Harris defensive rebound105–108
- Q44.1Jaylin Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper105–108
- Q47.2Jaylin Williams enters the game for Aaron Wiggins105–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:22Joel Embiid makes 18-foot jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)OKC 101 – 101 PHI · PHI 40% → 55% +16PHI 40% → 55%+16 pts
- Q43:02Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Kyle Lowry assists)OKC 103 – 103 PHI · PHI 39% → 55% +16PHI 39% → 55%+16 pts
- Q453.0Luguentz Dort makes two point shotOKC 105 – 104 PHI · OKC 33% → 62% +30OKC 33% → 62%+30 pts
- Q437.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2OKC 105 – 105 PHI · PHI 34% → 52% +18PHI 34% → 52%+18 pts
- Q437.1Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2OKC 105 – 106 PHI · PHI 52% → 70% +17PHI 52% → 70%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -3.5
- PHI 63%
- Fair odds
- PHI -225
- OKC +225 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 109.5 – 115.7 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −119 | +56 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +95 Elo | PHI 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 69.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30120.4 | Points scored | 114.415th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 112.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.4 | Margin | +2.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 114.914th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 112.712th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–14 | Road vs home | 21–1616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−119 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 0–1 PHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.