Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints29
- Fred VanVleetAssists12
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds9
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints48
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game136–147
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime136–147
- OT1.0Rockets offensive team rebound136–147
- OT1.0Fred VanVleet misses 29-foot three point jumper136–147
- OT5.1Luka Doncic makes driving layup136–147
- OT24.0Dante Exum defensive rebound136–145
- OT27.1Luka Doncic blocks Jabari Smith Jr. 's 27-foot three point jumper136–145
- OT33.1P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)136–145
- OT48.0Derrick Jones Jr. defensive rebound136–142
- OT51.1Jalen Green misses driving layup136–142
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:42Dillon Brooks makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 123 – 121 DAL · HOU 37% → 63% +26HOU 37% → 63%+26 pts
- Q41:41Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Kyrie Irving assists)HOU 123 – 124 DAL · DAL 32% → 64% +32DAL 32% → 64%+32 pts
- Q41:10Kyrie Irving makes layup (Dante Exum assists)HOU 125 – 126 DAL · DAL 40% → 66% +26DAL 40% → 66%+26 pts
- Q458.0Reggie Bullock Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)HOU 128 – 126 DAL · HOU 33% → 75% +42HOU 33% → 75%+42 pts
- Q40.0Dante Exum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)HOU 129 – 129 DAL · DAL 0% → 56% +56DAL 0% → 56%+56 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -6
- DAL 73%
- Fair odds
- DAL -221
- HOU +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 110.6 – 116.7 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1602 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +45 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +174 Elo | DAL 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.9 | Points scored | 118.26th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 115.720th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 116.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.616th of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.97th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 24–1513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.