LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints23
- Russell WestbrookAssists15
- Russell WestbrookRebounds15
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints21
- Devin BookerAssists5
- Royce O'NealeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–92
- Q41.1shot clock turnover105–92
- Q426.1Nassir Little makes 19-foot pullup jump shot105–92
- Q435.1Kobe Brown bad pass (Bol Bol steals)105–90
- Q454.0Bones Hyland defensive rebound105–90
- Q455.2Isaiah Thomas misses two point shot105–90
- Q41:10Xavier Moon enters the game for Norman Powell105–90
- Q41:10Kobe Brown enters the game for Terance Mann105–90
- Q41:10Brandon Boston Jr. enters the game for Paul George105–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:57Paul George makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 9 – 0 PHX · LAC 47% → 54% +6LAC 47% → 54%+6 pts
- Q19:22Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 12 – 2 PHX · LAC 50% → 56% +6LAC 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q49:34Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)LAC 86 – 76 PHX · PHX 9% → 16% +7PHX 9% → 16%+7 pts
- Q49:11Amir Coffey makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)LAC 89 – 76 PHX · LAC 85% → 92% +7LAC 85% → 92%+7 pts
- Q46:08Norman Powell makes driving layupLAC 93 – 84 PHX · LAC 81% → 88% +7LAC 81% → 88%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -6
- PHX 72%
- Fair odds
- PHX -188
- LAC +188 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 111.2 – 116.0 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −82 | +2 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +162 Elo | PHX 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 116.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 113.515th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +2.99th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 115.78th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.8 | Defense rating | 112.813th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.8 | Pace | 100.115th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–15 | Road vs home | 25–1511th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAC 2–0 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.