Minnesota Timberwolves at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints17
- Anthony EdwardsAssists3
- Naz ReidRebounds11
Suns- Grayson AllenPoints23
- Devin BookerAssists13
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game87–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter87–97
- Q413.1T.J. Warren makes 16-foot two point shot (Wendell Moore Jr. assists)87–97
- Q415.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound85–97
- Q418.0Luka Garza misses free throw 1 of 185–97
- Q418.0Nassir Little shooting foul85–97
- Q418.0Luka Garza makes 1-foot driving floating jump shot (Josh Minott assists)85–97
- Q421.2Josh Minott defensive rebound83–97
- Q425.0Nassir Little misses 26-foot three point jumper83–97
- Q436.1Leonard Miller makes 20-foot pullup jump shot83–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:45Grayson Allen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MIN 0 – 13 PHX · PHX 70% → 75% +5PHX 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q13:00Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 13 – 23 PHX · MIN 23% → 29% +6MIN 23% → 29%+6 pts
- Q11:42Bradley Beal makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MIN 15 – 28 PHX · PHX 71% → 77% +6PHX 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q135.1Monte Morris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIN 20 – 32 PHX · MIN 19% → 24% +5MIN 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q24:55Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)MIN 31 – 46 PHX · PHX 78% → 84% +5PHX 78% → 84%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 55%
- Fair odds
- MIN -104
- PHX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 109.0 – 108.7 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1642 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +14 | +20 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +34 Elo | MIN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 116.99th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.0 | Points allowed | 113.916th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.2 | Margin | +3.09th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 116.07th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.6 | Defense rating | 113.114th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.115th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3025–13 | Road vs home | 24–1411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.