Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints24
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Max StrusRebounds12
Suns- Devin BookerPoints40
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–122
- Q41.2Nassir Little defensive rebound101–122
- Q43.1Tristan Thompson misses 4-foot hook shot101–122
- Q417.1Saben Lee makes driving layup101–122
- Q433.0David Roddy defensive rebound101–120
- Q435.1Pete Nance misses free throw 2 of 2101–120
- Q435.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound101–120
- Q435.1Pete Nance misses free throw 1 of 2101–120
- Q435.1David Roddy loose ball foul101–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:12Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 3 – 3 PHX · CLE 35% → 41% +6CLE 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:50Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Max Strus assists)CLE 12 – 7 PHX · CLE 46% → 52% +6CLE 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q18:34Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)CLE 12 – 10 PHX · PHX 48% → 54% +6PHX 48% → 54%+6 pts
- Q16:53Royce O'Neale makes 29-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)CLE 14 – 15 PHX · PHX 54% → 60% +6PHX 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q14:45Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointer (Jusuf Nurkic assists)CLE 16 – 20 PHX · PHX 60% → 66% +6PHX 60% → 66%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4
- PHX 65%
- Fair odds
- PHX -141
- CLE +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 110.6 – 113.2 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +30 | +17 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +105 Elo | PHX 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 58.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 116.810th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.8 | Points allowed | 114.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.0 | Margin | +2.710th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 116.09th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 100.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 9th of 3022–16 | Road vs home | 23–1411th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 PHX in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.