Toronto Raptors at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gradey DickPoints16
- Javon Freeman-LibertyAssists6
- Jordan NworaRebounds13
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Anthony EdwardsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game85–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter85–133
- Q40.0(00:00) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)85–133
- Q413.1Josh Minott makes 1-foot dunk85–133
- Q416.0Javon Freeman-Liberty bad pass (Josh Minott steals)85–131
- Q428.2Luka Garza makes layup (Josh Minott assists)85–131
- Q445.1Mouhamadou Gueye makes free throw 2 of 285–129
- Q445.1Raptors offensive team rebound84–129
- Q445.1Mouhamadou Gueye misses free throw 1 of 284–129
- Q445.1Luka Garza personal foul84–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:17Garrett Temple makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen McDaniels assists)TOR 5 – 0 MIN · TOR 21% → 26% +5TOR 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q19:12Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)TOR 5 – 5 MIN · MIN 77% → 82% +5MIN 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q12:03Monte Morris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)TOR 16 – 19 MIN · MIN 80% → 84% +5MIN 80% → 84%+5 pts
- Q27:02Jordan Nwora makes 23-foot three point jumper (Javon Freeman-Liberty assists)TOR 31 – 35 MIN · TOR 12% → 16% +4TOR 12% → 16%+4 pts
- Q26:53Naz Reid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)TOR 31 – 38 MIN · MIN 84% → 88% +4MIN 84% → 88%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -13.5
- MIN 90%
- Fair odds
- MIN -465
- TOR +465 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 103.8 – 115.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1637 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIN and TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −60 | −3 | TOR: Missing RJ Barrett −18 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +381 Elo | MIN 90.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 81.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 82.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 112.918th of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 106.21st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.8 | Margin | +6.63rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 107.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.622nd of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–26 | Road vs home | 27–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−60 Elo- RJ Barrett left knee−18 Elo
Timberwolves
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.