Los Angeles Lakers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints25
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds12
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints28
- RJ BarrettAssists6
- Kelly OlynykRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–111
- Q419.0Garrett Temple makes free throw 2 of 2128–111
- Q419.0Garrett Temple makes free throw 1 of 2128–110
- Q419.0Taurean Prince personal foul128–109
- Q419.1Garrett Temple defensive rebound128–109
- Q423.0Max Christie misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot128–109
- Q444.1Garrett Temple makes two point shot (Kobi Simmons assists)128–109
- Q449.0Kobi Simmons defensive rebound128–107
- Q451.1Jaxson Hayes misses driving floating jump shot128–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:51D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 7 – 12 TOR · LAL 61% → 67% +6LAL 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q17:38Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 14 – 16 TOR · LAL 67% → 73% +6LAL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q17:22RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)LAL 14 – 19 TOR · TOR 27% → 33% +6TOR 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q16:35D'Angelo Russell makes 24-foot three point jumper (LeBron James assists)LAL 19 – 21 TOR · LAL 66% → 72% +6LAL 66% → 72%+6 pts
- Q311:09Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 67 – 60 TOR · LAL 79% → 85% +6LAL 79% → 85%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9.5
- LAL 82%
- Fair odds
- LAL -339
- TOR +339 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 124.1 – 114.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1353 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +49 | −51 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +269 Elo | LAL 82.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 77.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 112.719th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 118.424th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −5.724th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 111.024th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.5 | Pace | 100.814th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 20th of 3015–21 | Road vs home | 13–2524th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.