Los Angeles Lakers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints40
- D'Angelo RussellAssists6
- Anthony DavisRebounds14
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints30
- Cam ThomasAssists6
- Trendon WatfordRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–104
- Q43.1shot clock turnover116–104
- Q427.1Lonnie Walker IV bad pass (Max Christie steals)116–104
- Q432.1Lonnie Walker IV defensive rebound116–104
- Q435.1Max Christie misses 27-foot three point jumper116–104
- Q448.1Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound116–104
- Q448.1Day'Ron Sharpe makes 2-foot dunk116–104
- Q449.1Maxwell Lewis blocks Jalen Wilson 's 6-foot two point shot116–102
- Q453.0Jalen Wilson defensive rebound116–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:35Rui Hachimura makes 23-foot three point shot (D'Angelo Russell assists)LAL 13 – 0 BKN · LAL 83% → 87% +4LAL 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q411:42Cam Thomas makes 26-foot step back jumpshotLAL 90 – 82 BKN · BKN 9% → 15% +6BKN 9% → 15%+6 pts
- Q411:21LeBron James makes 26-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 93 – 82 BKN · LAL 86% → 92% +6LAL 86% → 92%+6 pts
- Q410:50LeBron James makes 27-foot three pointerLAL 96 – 82 BKN · LAL 92% → 96% +4LAL 92% → 96%+4 pts
- Q410:27Cam Thomas makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)LAL 96 – 85 BKN · BKN 4% → 8% +4BKN 4% → 8%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 66%
- Fair odds
- LAL -199
- BKN +199 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 117.0 – 111.8 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −25 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +112 Elo | LAL 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 111.224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.6 | Points allowed | 113.514th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −2.222nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 111.922nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 114.119th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.5 | Pace | 98.721st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–21 | Road vs home | 17–1923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 0–1 BKN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.