Los Angeles Lakers at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints24
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds15
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–109
- Q43.1shot clock turnover90–109
- Q425.1T.J. McConnell defensive rebound90–109
- Q428.1Obi Toppin blocks Maxwell Lewis 's 25-foot step back jumpshot90–109
- Q436.1shot clock turnover90–109
- Q449.2Isaiah Jackson offensive rebound90–109
- Q453.2Ben Sheppard misses 22-foot three point jumper90–109
- Q41:17Max Christie makes 16-foot pullup jump shot90–109
- Q41:27Obi Toppin makes 4-foot two point shot (Ben Sheppard assists)88–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:34T.J. McConnell makes 24-foot three point jumperLAL 37 – 43 IND · IND 53% → 61% +8IND 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q21:15Andrew Nembhard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Aaron Nesmith assists)LAL 47 – 50 IND · IND 46% → 54% +9IND 46% → 54%+9 pts
- Q310:42Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)LAL 51 – 59 IND · IND 61% → 69% +8IND 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q38:56Aaron Nesmith makes 27-foot three point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)LAL 55 – 62 IND · IND 58% → 67% +9IND 58% → 67%+9 pts
- Q35:15Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)LAL 64 – 75 IND · IND 73% → 81% +8IND 73% → 81%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -1
- LAL 55%
- Fair odds
- LAL -128
- IND +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 125.3 – 123.4 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +7 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | LAL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +32 Elo | LAL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 56.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.1 | Points scored | 122.71st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.7 | Points allowed | 121.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +1.816th of 30 |
| 15th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 116.425th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.5 | Pace | 103.82nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 20th of 3014–20 | Road vs home | 21–1516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 2–0 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.