New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints31
- Zion WilliamsonAssists7
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Suns- Bradley BealPoints33
- Devin BookerAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–105
- Q49.1Grayson Allen out of bounds bad pass turnover113–105
- Q417.1Herbert Jones makes free throw 2 of 2113–105
- Q417.1Herbert Jones makes free throw 1 of 2112–105
- Q417.1Devin Booker personal foul111–105
- Q422.0Larry Nance Jr. defensive rebound111–105
- Q425.1Devin Booker misses 26-foot three point jumper111–105
- Q429.0Dyson Daniels enters the game for Trey Murphy III111–105
- Q429.0Suns Full timeout111–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:48Kevin Durant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Drew Eubanks assists)NO 86 – 82 PHX · PHX 30% → 41% +11PHX 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q49:59Bradley Beal makes 23-foot step back jumpshot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)NO 93 – 91 PHX · PHX 33% → 46% +13PHX 33% → 46%+13 pts
- Q47:50Bradley Beal makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)NO 95 – 96 PHX · PHX 45% → 60% +15PHX 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q44:55Zion Williamson makes 15-foot pullup jump shotNO 103 – 99 PHX · NO 59% → 71% +12NO 59% → 71%+12 pts
- Q44:02Bradley Beal makes 8-foot jumper (Devin Booker assists)NO 103 – 101 PHX · PHX 26% → 39% +13PHX 26% → 39%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Fair odds
- PHX -163
- NO +163 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 109.1 – 112.9 PHX
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +24 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +99 Elo | PHX 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 62.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 116.610th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 113.515th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.5 | Margin | +3.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 115.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 112.713th of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.4 | Pace | 100.115th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3024–14 | Road vs home | 25–1410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 0–2 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.