San Antonio Spurs at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Devonte' GrahamPoints20
- Victor WembanyamaAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds12
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints31
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists7
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–109
- Q40.0(00:00) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)111–109
- Q40.0CJ McCollum makes 27-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)111–109
- Q40.2Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2111–106
- Q40.2Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 1 of 2110–106
- Q40.2Jordan Hawkins personal take foul109–106
- Q42.1Herbert Jones lost ball turnover (Victor Wembanyama steals)109–106
- Q410.1Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas109–106
- Q410.1Pelicans Full timeout109–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:42Trey Murphy III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Herbert Jones assists)SA 95 – 95 NO · NO 39% → 55% +15NO 39% → 55%+15 pts
- Q46:42Malaki Branham makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)SA 98 – 97 NO · SA 35% → 51% +16SA 35% → 51%+16 pts
- Q43:26Victor Wembanyama makes 26-foot step back jumpshotSA 105 – 99 NO · SA 69% → 86% +17SA 69% → 86%+17 pts
- Q43:06CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)SA 105 – 102 NO · NO 12% → 30% +17NO 12% → 30%+17 pts
- Q410.1Devonte' Graham makes free throw 1 of 2SA 108 – 106 NO · SA 81% → 96% +15SA 81% → 96%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -4
- NO 66%
- Fair odds
- NO -164
- SA +164 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 109.1 – 112.9 NO
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1398 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −62 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing Zion Williamson −49 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NO +114 Elo | NO 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 61.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 62.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30112.1 | Points scored | 115.113th of 30 |
| 25th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 110.68th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.0 | Margin | +4.56th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 115.610th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 111.08th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30102.8 | Pace | 99.417th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 27th of 308–30 | Road vs home | 21–1717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−62 Elo- Zion Williamson left finger−49 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SA 0–3 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.