Cleveland Cavaliers at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints28
- Max StrusAssists9
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Clippers- Paul GeorgePoints39
- Paul GeorgeAssists7
- Paul GeorgeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q40.0Cavaliers offensive team rebound118–120
- Q40.1Max Strus misses 24-foot three point shot118–120
- Q41.1Ivica Zubac enters the game for Norman Powell118–120
- Q41.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound118–120
- Q41.1Paul George blocks Darius Garland 's 2-foot two point shot118–120
- Q47.0Darius Garland enters the game for Isaac Okoro118–120
- Q47.0Cavaliers Full timeout118–120
- Q47.0Paul George makes 13-foot step back jumpshot118–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:16Terance Mann makes 25-foot three pointer (Amir Coffey assists)CLE 115 – 115 LAC · LAC 18% → 52% +34LAC 18% → 52%+34 pts
- Q447.0Amir Coffey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)CLE 115 – 118 LAC · LAC 52% → 90% +38LAC 52% → 90%+38 pts
- Q431.1Jarrett Allen makes 2-foot layup (Darius Garland assists)CLE 117 – 118 LAC · CLE 6% → 30% +23CLE 6% → 30%+23 pts
- Q431.1Jarrett Allen makes free throw 1 of 1CLE 118 – 118 LAC · CLE 30% → 49% +19CLE 30% → 49%+19 pts
- Q47.0Paul George makes 13-foot step back jumpshotCLE 118 – 120 LAC · LAC 51% → 98% +48LAC 51% → 98%+48 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 65%
- Fair odds
- LAC -174
- CLE +174 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 108.1 – 112.4 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −45 | −54 | CLE: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +108 Elo | LAC 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 63.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 116.011th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 112.410th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +3.77th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 117.44th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 113.718th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 98.723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 3022–18 | Road vs home | 24–139th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.