Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints26
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Lakers- D'Angelo RussellPoints28
- LeBron JamesAssists12
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–116
- Q44.1shot clock turnover97–116
- Q428.1Pete Nance steps out of bounds turnover97–116
- Q431.1Sam Merrill defensive rebound97–116
- Q435.2Max Christie misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot97–116
- Q445.1Colin Castleton offensive rebound97–116
- Q447.1Taurean Prince misses 11-foot two point shot97–116
- Q41:07Colin Castleton enters the game for Spencer Dinwiddie97–116
- Q41:07Craig Porter out of bounds bad pass turnover97–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:28Max Strus makes 27-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 62 – 67 LAL · CLE 21% → 28% +7CLE 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q38:39Darius Garland makes 27-foot three pointerCLE 67 – 67 LAL · CLE 34% → 43% +9CLE 34% → 43%+9 pts
- Q36:12Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 72 – 69 LAL · CLE 43% → 53% +10CLE 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q34:42Austin Reaves makes 23-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)CLE 73 – 74 LAL · LAL 49% → 60% +10LAL 49% → 60%+10 pts
- Q32:54Taurean Prince makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Anthony Davis assists)CLE 73 – 83 LAL · LAL 79% → 86% +7LAL 79% → 86%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 65%
- Fair odds
- LAL -155
- CLE +155 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 113.7 – 117.1 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +30 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +105 Elo | LAL 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 118.07th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.9 | Points allowed | 117.323rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +0.619th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 6th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 113.315th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3022–17 | Road vs home | 27–127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 LAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.