Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Anthony DavisPoints35
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- Anthony DavisRebounds18
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints29
- Jared ButlerAssists7
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–120
- Q48.0LeBron James defensive rebound125–120
- Q411.1Anthony Davis blocks Jared Butler 's 26-foot three point pullup jump shot125–120
- Q417.1Anthony Davis enters the game for Maxwell Lewis125–120
- Q417.1Austin Reaves enters the game for Colin Castleton125–120
- Q417.1LeBron James enters the game for Jaxson Hayes125–120
- Q417.1Rui Hachimura enters the game for Max Christie125–120
- Q417.1Wizards Full timeout125–120
- Q417.1Maxwell Lewis out of bounds lost ball turnover125–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:43Patrick Baldwin Jr. makes two point shot (Justin Champagnie assists)LAL 103 – 100 WSH · WSH 20% → 27% +7WSH 20% → 27%+7 pts
- Q48:25Anthony Davis makes layup (LeBron James assists)LAL 105 – 101 WSH · LAL 69% → 77% +8LAL 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q47:47Kyle Kuzma makes 1-foot two point shotLAL 107 – 103 WSH · WSH 16% → 23% +7WSH 16% → 23%+7 pts
- Q47:13Justin Champagnie makes 1-foot dunk (Jared Butler assists)LAL 107 – 105 WSH · WSH 22% → 31% +9WSH 22% → 31%+9 pts
- Q46:12LeBron James makes 1-foot driving dunkLAL 109 – 105 WSH · LAL 69% → 78% +9LAL 69% → 78%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lakers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -8
- LAL 78%
- Fair odds
- LAL -253
- WSH +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 123.3 – 116.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1326 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +21 | −1 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +223 Elo | LAL 78.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 70.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 71.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 113.317th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 122.830th of 30 |
| 19th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −9.529th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.9 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 117.528th of 30 |
| 4th of 30102.5 | Pace | 104.31st of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 20th of 3016–21 | Road vs home | 7–3129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAL 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.