Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints35
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Wizards- Corey KispertPoints27
- Jordan PooleAssists13
- Anthony GillRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–117
- Q42.0Jordan Poole defensive rebound113–117
- Q45.0Pat Connaughton misses 25-foot three point jumper113–117
- Q48.1Jared Butler enters the game for Tristan Vukcevic113–117
- Q48.1Bucks Full timeout113–117
- Q48.1Anthony Gill makes two point shot113–117
- Q48.1Anthony Gill offensive rebound113–115
- Q49.0Anthony Gill misses driving layup113–115
- Q411.1Khris Middleton makes two point shot113–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30.1Jae Crowder makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 86 – 91 WSH · MIL 27% → 39% +11MIL 27% → 39%+11 pts
- Q411:33Jared Butler makes 28-foot three pointerMIL 88 – 94 WSH · WSH 54% → 66% +12WSH 54% → 66%+12 pts
- Q46:12AJ Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)MIL 102 – 104 WSH · MIL 29% → 45% +16MIL 29% → 45%+16 pts
- Q45:32Jordan Poole makes 11-foot two point shotMIL 102 – 106 WSH · WSH 56% → 68% +12WSH 56% → 68%+12 pts
- Q43:22Corey Kispert makes 27-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)MIL 106 – 113 WSH · WSH 75% → 90% +15WSH 75% → 90%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -7.5
- MIL 77%
- Fair odds
- MIL -209
- WSH +209 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 120.0 – 114.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1315 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −11 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Missing Kyle Kuzma −5, Tyus Jones −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +210 Elo | MIL 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 67.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 113.317th of 30 |
| 21st of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 123.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.5 | Margin | −9.729th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 117.628th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 104.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 3018–19 | Road vs home | 6–3130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−11 Elo- Kyle Kuzma right heel−5 Elo
- Tyus Jones back injury−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.