Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints37
- Jusuf NurkicAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds19
Clippers- Bones HylandPoints37
- Bones HylandAssists9
- Mason PlumleeRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–108
- Q42.0Saben Lee makes 2-foot driving dunk124–108
- Q43.1Suns defensive team rebound122–108
- Q43.1Josh Okogie vs. Bones Hyland (Saben Lee gains possession)122–108
- Q46.0Josh Okogie blocks Bones Hyland 's 24-foot three point jumper122–108
- Q47.2Brandon Boston Jr. offensive rebound122–108
- Q410.0Bones Hyland misses 24-foot three point jumper122–108
- Q411.1Brandon Boston Jr. offensive rebound122–108
- Q416.1Bones Hyland misses running pullup jump shot122–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:19Eric Gordon makes 26-foot three point shot (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 87 – 86 LAC · PHX 50% → 61% +11PHX 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q31:26Amir Coffey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kobe Brown assists)PHX 90 – 91 LAC · LAC 35% → 47% +11LAC 35% → 47%+11 pts
- Q410:34Amir Coffey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bones Hyland assists)PHX 94 – 98 LAC · LAC 48% → 61% +13LAC 48% → 61%+13 pts
- Q46:30Devin Booker makes two point shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 107 – 106 LAC · PHX 49% → 61% +11PHX 49% → 61%+11 pts
- Q46:02Grayson Allen makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 110 – 106 LAC · PHX 61% → 76% +15PHX 61% → 76%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 67%
- Fair odds
- PHX -175
- LAC +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 114.5 – 110.3 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | LAC and PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +14 | −157 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +125 Elo | PHX 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 63.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.1 | Points scored | 115.911th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 112.210th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.7 | Margin | +3.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.1 | Pace | 98.820th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 25–139th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−157 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHX 0–3 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.