Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Jalen GreenPoints26
- Amen ThompsonAssists6
- Amen ThompsonRebounds15
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints30
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Dalano BantonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–107
- Q49.1Moses Brown makes driving layup116–107
- Q415.1Moses Brown offensive rebound116–105
- Q415.1Moses Brown misses 4-foot hook shot116–105
- Q416.1Moses Brown offensive rebound116–105
- Q421.1Kris Murray misses 23-foot three point jumper116–105
- Q430.2Jock Landale makes free throw 2 of 2116–105
- Q430.2Jock Landale makes free throw 1 of 2115–105
- Q430.2Moses Brown shooting foul114–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:37Scoot Henderson makes 23-foot step back jumpshotHOU 11 – 19 POR · POR 47% → 54% +7POR 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q13:16Cam Whitmore makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)HOU 18 – 19 POR · HOU 54% → 61% +7HOU 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q11:10Rayan Rupert makes 25-foot three point shot (Justin Minaya assists)HOU 18 – 24 POR · POR 44% → 51% +7POR 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q118.1Jalen Green makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 23 – 24 POR · HOU 53% → 60% +7HOU 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q210:47Jeff Green makes 23-foot three point shot (Cam Whitmore assists)HOU 28 – 24 POR · HOU 65% → 71% +7HOU 65% → 71%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rockets 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5.5
- HOU 72%
- Fair odds
- HOU -182
- POR +182 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.0 – 109.5 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1356 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | POR and HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −27 | −66 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +161 Elo | HOU 71.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 64.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 106.728th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 115.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 106.429th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 115.123rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30100.8 | Pace | 99.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–27 | Road vs home | 11–2925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
HOU 2–1 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.