Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints22
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Kevon LooneyRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints25
- Scoot HendersonAssists12
- Jabari WalkerRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–92
- Q43.1Stephen Curry defensive rebound100–92
- Q43.1Scoot Henderson misses 27-foot three point shot100–92
- Q421.0Jabari Walker defensive rebound100–92
- Q424.0Chris Paul misses 14-foot jumper100–92
- Q448.1Deandre Ayton makes 13-foot two point shot (Scoot Henderson assists)100–92
- Q41:04Chris Paul makes 26-foot three pointer100–90
- Q41:16Brandin Podziemski offensive rebound97–90
- Q41:17Chris Paul misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot97–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:09Kris Murray makes 25-foot step back jumpshot (Ashton Hagans assists)GS 79 – 85 POR · POR 52% → 65% +14POR 52% → 65%+14 pts
- Q47:57Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)GS 82 – 85 POR · GS 32% → 47% +15GS 32% → 47%+15 pts
- Q47:08Kevon Looney makes 2-foot dunk (Stephen Curry assists)GS 84 – 85 POR · GS 45% → 56% +11GS 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q46:25Stephen Curry makes 17-foot pullup jump shotGS 86 – 86 POR · GS 49% → 60% +11GS 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q44:42Stephen Curry makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chris Paul assists)GS 90 – 86 POR · GS 65% → 81% +16GS 65% → 81%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -11
- GS 86%
- Fair odds
- GS -328
- POR +328 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 116.4 – 107.4 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1358 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | −61 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +313 Elo | GS 85.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 76.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30118.0 | Points scored | 106.828th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 115.519th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.7 | Offense rating | 106.529th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.219th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–16 | Road vs home | 11–2825th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−61 Elo- Anfernee Simons left knee tendinitis−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 3–0 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.