Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Klay ThompsonPoints27
- Draymond GreenAssists10
- Stephen CurryRebounds7
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints33
- LeBron JamesAssists11
- Rui HachimuraRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–120
- Q422.1Colin Castleton makes 3-foot dunk (Maxwell Lewis assists)134–120
- Q428.0Moses Moody lost ball turnover (Colin Castleton steals)134–118
- Q433.0Moses Moody defensive rebound134–118
- Q434.0Usman Garuba blocks Colin Castleton 's 5-foot two point shot134–118
- Q436.0Colin Castleton offensive rebound134–118
- Q436.0Maxwell Lewis misses free throw 3 of 3134–118
- Q436.0Maxwell Lewis makes free throw 2 of 3134–118
- Q436.0Maxwell Lewis makes free throw 1 of 3134–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:37Gary Payton II makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)GS 84 – 75 LAL · GS 70% → 78% +8GS 70% → 78%+8 pts
- Q35:51Spencer Dinwiddie makes 23-foot three point shot (Rui Hachimura assists)GS 85 – 80 LAL · LAL 24% → 32% +9LAL 24% → 32%+9 pts
- Q35:37Stephen Curry makes 28-foot three pointerGS 88 – 80 LAL · GS 68% → 77% +9GS 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q32:46Klay Thompson makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Chris Paul assists)GS 94 – 86 LAL · GS 69% → 78% +9GS 69% → 78%+9 pts
- Q31:23Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point shot (Klay Thompson assists)GS 99 – 89 LAL · GS 76% → 85% +8GS 76% → 85%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Warriors 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 59%
- Fair odds
- GS -110
- LAL +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 119.3 – 118.6 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −36 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Missing Anthony Davis −57 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +63 Elo | GS 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 52.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.8 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 117.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +0.719th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 113.215th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 28–137th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−36 Elo- Anthony Davis headache−57 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
GS 2–1 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.