Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints31
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds16
Lakers- Rui HachimuraPoints30
- D'Angelo RussellAssists11
- Jaxson HayesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–117
- Q423.1Colin Castleton makes free throw 2 of 2127–117
- Q423.1Colin Castleton makes free throw 1 of 2127–116
- Q423.1Luka Garza personal foul127–115
- Q439.1shot clock turnover127–115
- Q439.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound127–115
- Q441.1Wendell Moore Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper127–115
- Q41:04Colin Castleton makes driving layup127–115
- Q41:14Luka Garza lost ball turnover (Skylar Mays steals)127–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:40Jordan McLaughlin makes 26-foot three pointer (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)MIN 52 – 48 LAL · MIN 53% → 61% +8MIN 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q26:01Naz Reid makes 29-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 57 – 54 LAL · MIN 51% → 58% +8MIN 51% → 58%+8 pts
- Q31:44Cam Reddish makes 23-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)MIN 94 – 90 LAL · LAL 25% → 35% +10LAL 25% → 35%+10 pts
- Q31:22Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 97 – 90 LAL · MIN 66% → 76% +10MIN 66% → 76%+10 pts
- Q339.1Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three pointer (Monte Morris assists)MIN 100 – 92 LAL · MIN 70% → 79% +10MIN 70% → 79%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Timberwolves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2
- MIN 57%
- Fair odds
- MIN -103
- LAL +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.6 – 111.4 LAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −27 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +49 Elo | MIN 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.8 | Points scored | 117.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.8 | Points allowed | 117.123rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+6.9 | Margin | +0.918th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 113.915th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 113.115th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3098.7 | Pace | 102.64th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3025–14 | Road vs home | 28–127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.