Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Dalano BantonPoints28
- Dalano BantonAssists9
- Jabari WalkerRebounds18
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints26
- Derrick WhiteAssists9
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–124
- Q410.1shot clock turnover107–124
- Q434.1Scoot Henderson makes free throw 2 of 2107–124
- Q434.1Scoot Henderson makes free throw 1 of 2106–124
- Q434.1Payton Pritchard personal foul105–124
- Q442.0Svi Mykhailiuk makes driving layup (Payton Pritchard assists)105–124
- Q41:00Scoot Henderson makes free throw 2 of 2105–122
- Q41:00Scoot Henderson makes free throw 1 of 2104–122
- Q41:00Svi Mykhailiuk shooting foul103–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:32Rayan Rupert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)POR 10 – 7 BOS · POR 15% → 20% +4POR 15% → 20%+4 pts
- Q11:29Jaylen Brown makes 16-foot two point shot (Payton Pritchard assists)POR 20 – 24 BOS · BOS 83% → 88% +5BOS 83% → 88%+5 pts
- Q34:32Justin Minaya makes 23-foot three point shot (Dalano Banton assists)POR 75 – 81 BOS · POR 8% → 12% +5POR 8% → 12%+5 pts
- Q31:34Sam Hauser makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)POR 81 – 88 BOS · BOS 83% → 90% +6BOS 83% → 90%+6 pts
- Q327.0Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)POR 85 – 93 BOS · BOS 85% → 91% +6BOS 85% → 91%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -16
- BOS 93%
- Fair odds
- BOS -605
- POR +605 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 103.5 – 117.2 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1720 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +8 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +453 Elo | BOS 93.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 84.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 120.82nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30115.5 | Points allowed | 109.25th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +11.61st of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 121.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.2 | Pace | 98.820th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3010–29 | Road vs home | 34–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.