Portland Trail Blazers at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints34
- Dalano BantonAssists8
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Wizards- Deni AvdijaPoints22
- Jordan PooleAssists9
- Deni AvdijaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–102
- Q46.2Jabari Walker defensive rebound108–102
- Q410.1Jared Butler misses 25-foot three point jumper108–102
- Q415.1Jared Butler enters the game for Eugene Omoruyi108–102
- Q415.1Wizards Full timeout108–102
- Q415.1Scoot Henderson makes free throw 1 of 1108–102
- Q415.1Deni Avdija shooting foul107–102
- Q415.1Scoot Henderson makes 4-foot two point shot107–102
- Q435.1Jabari Walker defensive rebound105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:37Tristan Vukcevic makes 1-foot dunk (Corey Kispert assists)POR 98 – 99 WSH · WSH 45% → 60% +15WSH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q43:19Dalano Banton makes layup (Duop Reath assists)POR 100 – 99 WSH · POR 40% → 56% +16POR 40% → 56%+16 pts
- Q43:01Tristan Vukcevic makes tip shotPOR 100 – 101 WSH · WSH 44% → 60% +16WSH 44% → 60%+16 pts
- Q42:38Scoot Henderson makes 10-foot two point shotPOR 102 – 101 WSH · POR 39% → 57% +18POR 39% → 57%+18 pts
- Q41:24Kris Murray makes two point shot (Deandre Ayton assists)POR 105 – 102 WSH · POR 61% → 81% +20POR 61% → 81%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wizards 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1.5
- WSH 57%
- Fair odds
- WSH -137
- POR +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 111.8 – 114.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1354 | 1324 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −60 | −17 | POR: Missing Anfernee Simons −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +49 Elo | WSH 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 57.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.9 | Points scored | 113.417th of 30 |
| 18th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 122.930th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.7 | Margin | −9.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 108.425th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 117.528th of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.2 | Pace | 104.31st of 30 |
| 26th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 26th of 309–29 | Road vs home | 7–3229th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−60 Elo- Anfernee Simons right knee tendinitis−13 Elo
Wizards
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
POR 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.