Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Josh GiddeyPoints17
- Cason WallaceAssists5
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds7
Celtics- Kristaps PorzingisPoints27
- Payton PritchardAssists8
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–135
- Q46.0shot clock turnover100–135
- Q430.2Oshae Brissett defensive rebound100–135
- Q431.2Gordon Hayward misses 22-foot three point jumper100–135
- Q450.1Payton Pritchard makes driving layup100–135
- Q41:01Lindy Waters III makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot100–133
- Q41:20Oshae Brissett makes free throw 2 of 298–133
- Q41:20Oshae Brissett makes free throw 1 of 298–132
- Q41:20Lindy Waters III shooting foul98–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:44Josh Giddey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)OKC 19 – 17 BOS · OKC 15% → 19% +4OKC 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q12:08Jayson Tatum makes 23-foot three pointer (Al Horford assists)OKC 21 – 24 BOS · BOS 83% → 87% +4BOS 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q35:22Al Horford makes 27-foot three point jumper (Payton Pritchard assists)OKC 68 – 77 BOS · BOS 88% → 92% +5BOS 88% → 92%+5 pts
- Q34:10Sam Hauser makes 24-foot three point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)OKC 72 – 82 BOS · BOS 89% → 93% +4BOS 89% → 93%+4 pts
- Q34:00Kenrich Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)OKC 75 – 82 BOS · OKC 7% → 11% +4OKC 7% → 11%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -13.5
- BOS 90%
- Fair odds
- BOS -589
- OKC +589 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 108.8 – 122.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1596 | 1715 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −115 | +62 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +372 Elo | BOS 89.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 85.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 120.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 109.45th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+7.2 | Margin | +11.41st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.8 | Offense rating | 121.21st of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 109.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.920th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 32–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−115 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.