Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints40
- Domantas SabonisAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds16
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints21
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Kristaps PorzingisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–101
- Q40.0Kings offensive team rebound100–101
- Q41.2Colby Jones misses 4-foot tip shot100–101
- Q41.2Colby Jones offensive rebound100–101
- Q43.0Keegan Murray misses 7-foot tip shot100–101
- Q43.0Keegan Murray offensive rebound100–101
- Q45.1De'Aaron Fox misses 16-foot pullup jump shot100–101
- Q47.1Kings Full timeout100–101
- Q47.1Xavier Tillman makes 12-foot driving floating jump shot100–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:42Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)SAC 70 – 78 BOS · BOS 81% → 88% +7BOS 81% → 88%+7 pts
- Q42:00Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SAC 95 – 99 BOS · SAC 3% → 12% +9SAC 3% → 12%+9 pts
- Q456.0De'Aaron Fox makes driving layupSAC 97 – 99 BOS · SAC 6% → 20% +14SAC 6% → 20%+14 pts
- Q427.0De'Aaron Fox makes 26-foot three point shotSAC 100 – 99 BOS · SAC 13% → 68% +55SAC 13% → 68%+55 pts
- Q47.1Xavier Tillman makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 100 – 101 BOS · BOS 16% → 86% +71BOS 16% → 86%+71 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -10.5
- BOS 85%
- Fair odds
- BOS -324
- SAC +324 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 109.7 – 118.7 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1719 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +24 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · BOS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +296 Elo | BOS 84.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 75.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 76.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 121.02nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 109.35th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +11.71st of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 121.41st of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Defense rating | 109.63rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.920th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 33–31st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SAC 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.