New Orleans Pelicans at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints31
- Jonas ValanciunasAssists5
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds8
Trail Blazers- Deandre AytonPoints30
- Scoot HendersonAssists15
- Deandre AytonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–100
- Q45.0Duop Reath makes two point shot110–100
- Q45.0Duop Reath offensive rebound110–98
- Q46.2Rayan Rupert misses driving floating jump shot110–98
- Q418.1Duop Reath defensive rebound110–98
- Q418.1Cody Zeller misses tip shot110–98
- Q418.1Cody Zeller offensive rebound110–98
- Q422.0Jordan Hawkins misses driving floating jump shot110–98
- Q444.1Dalano Banton makes free throw 2 of 2110–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:13CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 55 – 57 POR · NO 48% → 57% +9NO 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:34CJ McCollum makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 58 – 59 POR · NO 51% → 60% +9NO 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q38:43Kris Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Scoot Henderson assists)NO 64 – 65 POR · POR 32% → 41% +9POR 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q38:28Trey Murphy III makes 30-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 67 – 65 POR · NO 59% → 68% +9NO 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q34:20Trey Murphy III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)NO 79 – 73 POR · NO 71% → 79% +9NO 71% → 79%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pelicans 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -7.5
- NO 77%
- Fair odds
- NO -212
- POR +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.9 – 105.2 POR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1362 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | −53 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +210 Elo | NO 77.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30115.0 | Points scored | 106.928th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 115.619th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −8.627th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 106.629th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3099.4 | Pace | 99.219th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–14 | Road vs home | 11–2725th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NO 2–0 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.