Utah Jazz at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Kenneth Lofton Jr.Points27
- Kenneth Lofton Jr.Assists8
- Omer YurtsevenRebounds10
Clippers- Bones HylandPoints20
- Bones HylandAssists6
- Daniel TheisRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–109
- Q40.1Brandon Boston Jr. lost ball turnover (Kenneth Lofton Jr. steals)110–109
- Q41.1Brandon Boston Jr. offensive rebound110–109
- Q44.0Xavier Moon misses 26-foot step back jumpshot110–109
- Q47.1Daniel Theis defensive rebound110–109
- Q411.0Keyonte George misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot110–109
- Q431.0Taylor Hendricks defensive goaltending violation110–109
- Q431.0Brandon Boston Jr. makes two point shot (Bones Hyland assists)110–109
- Q436.0Keyonte George bad pass (Bones Hyland steals)110–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:40Bones Hyland makes 28-foot step back jumpshot (Xavier Moon assists)UTAH 104 – 103 LAC · LAC 35% → 55% +20LAC 35% → 55%+20 pts
- Q43:11Bones Hyland makes two point shotUTAH 104 – 105 LAC · LAC 52% → 67% +16LAC 52% → 67%+16 pts
- Q42:25Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kenneth Lofton Jr. assists)UTAH 107 – 105 LAC · UTAH 33% → 60% +27UTAH 33% → 60%+27 pts
- Q41:54Kenneth Lofton Jr. makes two point shot (Talen Horton-Tucker assists)UTAH 109 – 105 LAC · UTAH 63% → 81% +17UTAH 63% → 81%+17 pts
- Q431.0Brandon Boston Jr. makes two point shot (Bones Hyland assists)UTAH 110 – 109 LAC · LAC 8% → 34% +26LAC 8% → 34%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Clippers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11.5
- LAC 86%
- Fair odds
- LAC -470
- UTAH +470 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 110.4 – 122.1 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1355 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −108 | −53 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +322 Elo | LAC 86.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 82.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 82.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 115.811th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 112.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.9 | Margin | +3.57th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 117.14th of 30 |
| 29th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 113.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.820th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 309–30 | Road vs home | 25–1410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−108 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
UTAH 1–2 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.