Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Marcus SasserPoints24
- Malachi FlynnAssists5
- James WisemanRebounds10
Mavericks- Jaden HardyPoints25
- Dwight PowellAssists4
- Dwight PowellRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–89
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–89
- Q46.2shot clock turnover107–89
- Q430.2Pistons defensive team rebound107–89
- Q432.2Markieff Morris misses 27-foot three point jumper107–89
- Q441.1Marcus Sasser makes driving layup107–89
- Q459.1Pistons defensive team rebound105–89
- Q41:00Brandon Williams misses 26-foot three point jumper105–89
- Q41:09Marcus Sasser makes 21-foot step back jumpshot105–89
- Q41:29Marcus Sasser defensive rebound103–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:42Chimezie Metu makes free throw 1 of 2DET 38 – 36 DAL · DAL 58% → 68% +10DAL 58% → 68%+10 pts
- Q37:17Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot step back jumpshotDET 66 – 58 DAL · DET 47% → 56% +10DET 47% → 56%+10 pts
- Q49:27Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Olivier-Maxence Prosper assists)DET 84 – 76 DAL · DAL 17% → 28% +10DAL 17% → 28%+10 pts
- Q45:52Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dwight Powell assists)DET 90 – 84 DAL · DAL 14% → 27% +12DAL 14% → 27%+12 pts
- Q44:18Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Hardy assists)DET 96 – 89 DAL · DAL 7% → 16% +10DAL 7% → 16%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -11.5
- DAL 87%
- Fair odds
- DAL -362
- DET +362 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 108.7 – 118.5 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1626 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −66 | −129 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −27, Jalen Duren −15, Stanley Umude −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +324 Elo | DAL 86.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 77.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 78.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 118.65th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 115.520th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.2 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 116.47th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 113.415th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 30th of 306–34 | Road vs home | 25–1512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−66 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee−27 Elo
- Jalen Duren back spasms−15 Elo
- Stanley Umude right ankle injury−1 Elo
Mavericks
−129 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.