Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints39
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints22
- Tre MannAssists6
- Nick RichardsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–104
- Q410.1shot clock turnover130–104
- Q431.2Jaden Hardy defensive rebound130–104
- Q435.0Nick Smith Jr. misses running pullup jump shot130–104
- Q441.2A.J. Lawson lost ball turnover (Bryce McGowens steals)130–104
- Q457.0JT Thor makes free throw 2 of 2130–104
- Q457.0Hornets offensive team rebound130–103
- Q457.0JT Thor misses free throw 1 of 2130–103
- Q457.0A.J. Lawson shooting foul130–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:17Luka Doncic makes 30-foot three point jumper (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)DAL 3 – 0 CHA · DAL 76% → 80% +5DAL 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q19:24Derrick Jones Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (P.J. Washington assists)DAL 8 – 6 CHA · DAL 73% → 78% +5DAL 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q18:09Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three pointer (Vasilije Micic assists)DAL 11 – 11 CHA · CHA 20% → 25% +5CHA 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q17:55Luka Doncic makes 26-foot step back jumpshot (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)DAL 14 – 11 CHA · DAL 75% → 80% +5DAL 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q16:09Luka Doncic makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDAL 19 – 13 CHA · DAL 79% → 84% +4DAL 79% → 84%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -11
- DAL 85%
- Fair odds
- DAL -312
- CHA +312 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 114.4 – 105.8 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1607 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +51 | −25 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +302 Elo | DAL 85.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 74.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 75.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30118.6 | Points scored | 106.429th of 30 |
| 20th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 116.621st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −10.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 107.628th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 117.929th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.9 | Pace | 98.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–15 | Road vs home | 11–2926th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.