Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Aaron WigginsPoints26
- Josh GiddeyAssists13
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Hornets- Grant WilliamsPoints19
- Vasilije MicicAssists10
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–118
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound121–118
- Q40.0Brandon Miller misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot121–118
- Q44.1Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2121–118
- Q44.1Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2120–118
- Q44.1Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe119–118
- Q44.1Brandon Miller personal take foul119–118
- Q46.1Brandon Miller makes driving layup119–118
- Q417.0Brandon Miller makes free throw 1 of 1119–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:07Grant Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Vasilije Micic assists)OKC 107 – 109 CHA · CHA 41% → 62% +21CHA 41% → 62%+21 pts
- Q43:08Aaron Wiggins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 110 – 111 CHA · OKC 22% → 44% +22OKC 22% → 44%+22 pts
- Q41:28Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)OKC 115 – 113 CHA · OKC 40% → 74% +34OKC 40% → 74%+34 pts
- Q41:18Vasilije Micic makes driving layupOKC 115 – 115 CHA · CHA 25% → 49% +23CHA 25% → 49%+23 pts
- Q454.1Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Chet Holmgren assists)OKC 118 – 115 CHA · OKC 51% → 88% +37OKC 51% → 88%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Thunder 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4.5
- OKC 68%
- Fair odds
- OKC -135
- CHA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 111.6 – 109.3 CHA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −111 | −31 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +133 Elo | OKC 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 57.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.8 | Points scored | 106.329th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.4 | Points allowed | 116.521st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.4 | Margin | −10.230th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 107.528th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 117.829th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 98.624th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 8th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 11–2826th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−111 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 1–0 CHA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.