Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Luguentz DortPoints22
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints21
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Obi ToppinRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–126
- Q42.1shot clock turnover112–126
- Q425.0Obi Toppin defensive rebound112–126
- Q428.1Cason Wallace misses 21-foot pullup jump shot112–126
- Q443.2Obi Toppin makes 1-foot dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)112–126
- Q448.1Kenrich Williams bad pass (Tyrese Haliburton steals)112–124
- Q456.2Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound112–124
- Q459.0Andrew Nembhard misses two point shot112–124
- Q41:17Kenrich Williams makes two point shot112–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:02Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)OKC 28 – 22 IND · IND 45% → 52% +7IND 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q15.0Obi Toppin makes 22-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)OKC 32 – 31 IND · IND 56% → 63% +7IND 56% → 63%+7 pts
- Q26:10Andrew Nembhard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)OKC 46 – 50 IND · IND 66% → 73% +7IND 66% → 73%+7 pts
- Q35:32Chet Holmgren makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 78 – 82 IND · OKC 19% → 27% +8OKC 19% → 27%+8 pts
- Q34:32Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three pointer (T.J. McConnell assists)OKC 80 – 85 IND · IND 67% → 76% +9IND 67% → 76%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4.5
- IND 68%
- Fair odds
- IND -205
- OKC +205 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.2 – 122.7 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1592 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −122 | +17 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +132 Elo | IND 68.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.9 | Points scored | 122.61st of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 120.428th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+6.7 | Margin | +2.215th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 118.12nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 116.024th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 23–1513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−122 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OKC 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.