Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints27
- Dennis SchroderAssists11
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–115
- Q41.1Mikal Bridges defensive rebound111–115
- Q45.1Pascal Siakam misses 29-foot jump bank shot111–115
- Q47.0Pacers Full timeout111–115
- Q47.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2111–115
- Q47.0Nic Claxton enters the game for Cam Thomas111–114
- Q47.0Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Cameron Johnson111–114
- Q47.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2111–114
- Q47.0Andrew Nembhard personal foul111–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:59Pascal Siakam makes 10-foot step back jumpshotIND 104 – 103 BKN · IND 44% → 61% +17IND 44% → 61%+17 pts
- Q42:02Nic Claxton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Dennis Schroder assists)IND 106 – 105 BKN · BKN 21% → 38% +17BKN 21% → 38%+17 pts
- Q41:41Pascal Siakam makes 14-foot two point shotIND 108 – 105 BKN · IND 63% → 81% +18IND 63% → 81%+18 pts
- Q41:23Mikal Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumperIND 108 – 108 BKN · BKN 17% → 48% +32BKN 17% → 48%+32 pts
- Q448.0Dennis Schroder makes 3-foot two point shotIND 108 – 110 BKN · BKN 49% → 78% +29BKN 49% → 78%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 65%
- Fair odds
- IND -150
- BKN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.1 – 113.0 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −29 | IND: Usual rotation · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +107 Elo | IND 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 111.124th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.4 | Points allowed | 113.815th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −2.622nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 111.722nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 114.320th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.7 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 17–2023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
IND 2–0 BKN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.