Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints22
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists13
- Jalen SmithRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–133
- Q422.1shot clock turnover111–133
- Q446.1Lonnie Walker IV makes driving layup111–133
- Q455.1Lonnie Walker IV defensive rebound109–133
- Q458.1Kendall Brown misses 10-foot pullup jump shot109–133
- Q41:11Lonnie Walker IV makes 27-foot three pointer109–133
- Q41:18Lonnie Walker IV defensive rebound106–133
- Q41:21Isaiah Wong misses 23-foot three point shot106–133
- Q41:29Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound106–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Cam Thomas makes 2-foot two point shotBKN 4 – 0 IND · BKN 30% → 34% +4BKN 30% → 34%+4 pts
- Q110:53Aaron Nesmith makes 2-foot two point shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)BKN 4 – 2 IND · IND 66% → 70% +4IND 66% → 70%+4 pts
- Q19:49Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)BKN 4 – 7 IND · IND 73% → 78% +5IND 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q18:56Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)BKN 4 – 10 IND · IND 78% → 83% +4IND 78% → 83%+4 pts
- Q18:28Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)BKN 4 – 13 IND · IND 83% → 86% +4IND 83% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -7.5
- IND 77%
- Fair odds
- IND -283
- BKN +283 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 110.0 – 117.9 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −20 | +12 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +209 Elo | IND 76.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 122.61st of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.5 | Points allowed | 120.628th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−2.4 | Margin | +2.015th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 118.02nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 21st of 3098.8 | Pace | 103.72nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3012–25 | Road vs home | 22–1513th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BKN 0–1 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.