Chicago Bulls at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints39
- Alex CarusoAssists10
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints20
- Jaden IveyAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–105
- Q49.1shot clock turnover127–105
- Q431.1Henri Drell defensive rebound127–105
- Q434.0James Wiseman misses free throw 2 of 2127–105
- Q434.0Pistons offensive team rebound127–105
- Q434.0James Wiseman misses free throw 1 of 2127–105
- Q434.0Henri Drell loose ball foul127–105
- Q434.0Pistons defensive team rebound127–105
- Q434.0Andrew Funk misses 23-foot three point jumper127–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:56Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot three point shot (Marcus Sasser assists)CHI 10 – 14 DET · DET 36% → 42% +6DET 36% → 42%+6 pts
- Q16:31DeMar DeRozan makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 15 – 15 DET · CHI 59% → 66% +6CHI 59% → 66%+6 pts
- Q15:18Dalen Terry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)CHI 18 – 17 DET · CHI 61% → 67% +6CHI 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q13.2Jared Rhoden makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Wiseman assists)CHI 31 – 30 DET · DET 27% → 33% +6DET 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q211:32Jevon Carter makes 24-foot three point jumper (Torrey Craig assists)CHI 34 – 30 DET · CHI 67% → 73% +6CHI 67% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bulls 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5
- CHI 69%
- Fair odds
- CHI -198
- DET +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.3 – 109.1 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −4 | −47 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −23 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +136 Elo | CHI 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 66.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30111.8 | Points scored | 110.226th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 119.226th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.8 | Margin | −9.128th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 108.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 116.826th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.69th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 18th of 3017–21 | Road vs home | 7–3229th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
−47 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CHI 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.