New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints45
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Josh HartRebounds13
Bulls- DeMar DeRozanPoints34
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Javonte GreenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–117
- Q417.1Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2128–117
- Q417.1Josh Hart makes free throw 1 of 2127–117
- Q417.1Dalen Terry personal take foul126–117
- Q427.0Javonte Green makes tip shot126–117
- Q427.0Javonte Green offensive rebound126–115
- Q429.0Coby White misses 29-foot three point jumper126–115
- Q438.1Josh Hart makes free throw 2 of 2126–115
- Q438.1Dalen Terry enters the game for Alex Caruso125–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20.0Donte DiVincenzo makes 39-foot three point shotNY 68 – 62 CHI · NY 62% → 70% +8NY 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q32:48OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)NY 94 – 86 CHI · NY 70% → 79% +9NY 70% → 79%+9 pts
- Q326.0DeMar DeRozan makes 27-foot three pointer (Coby White assists)NY 101 – 95 CHI · CHI 16% → 25% +9CHI 16% → 25%+9 pts
- Q47:35OG Anunoby makes dunk (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 109 – 103 CHI · NY 71% → 80% +8NY 71% → 80%+8 pts
- Q47:02Jalen Brunson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NY 112 – 103 CHI · NY 80% → 90% +9NY 80% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Knicks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -3
- NY 61%
- Fair odds
- NY -119
- CHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 107.8 – 106.5 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1579 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | +21 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +81 Elo | NY 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.5 | Points scored | 111.723rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30108.0 | Points allowed | 113.413th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.5 | Margin | −1.720th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.8 | Defense rating | 114.221st of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 12th of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 20–2022nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–1 CHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.