New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints43
- Josh HartAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints28
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–109
- Q44.1shot clock turnover122–109
- Q422.1Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound122–109
- Q425.1TyTy Washington Jr. misses driving floating jump shot122–109
- Q430.1Thanasis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound122–109
- Q433.1Andre Jackson Jr. misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot122–109
- Q444.0Miles McBride enters the game for OG Anunoby122–109
- Q444.0Jalen Brunson personal foul122–109
- Q448.0Donte DiVincenzo makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)122–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:46Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 77 – 73 MIL · NY 52% → 62% +11NY 52% → 62%+11 pts
- Q33:19Bobby Portis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)NY 77 – 76 MIL · MIL 38% → 48% +11MIL 38% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:30Josh Hart makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 82 – 78 MIL · NY 52% → 63% +11NY 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q31:40Bobby Portis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)NY 84 – 83 MIL · MIL 37% → 48% +11MIL 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q411:15Miles McBride makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 92 – 87 MIL · NY 57% → 69% +12NY 57% → 69%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIL 49%
- Fair odds
- MIL -115
- NY +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 108.8 – 109.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +29 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +6 Elo | NY 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.3 | Points scored | 119.93rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 116.822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 116.75th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 102.06th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 13th of 3020–18 | Road vs home | 29–104th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NY 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.