Memphis Grizzlies at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points35
- Jordan GoodwinAssists7
- GG JacksonRebounds12
Bucks- Brook LopezPoints25
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Brook LopezRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–101
- Q41.1GG Jackson defensive rebound109–101
- Q44.0Pat Connaughton misses 30-foot three point jumper109–101
- Q412.1Andre Jackson Jr. enters the game for Giannis Antetokounmpo109–101
- Q412.1shot clock turnover109–101
- Q432.1GG Jackson defensive rebound109–101
- Q436.0Malik Beasley misses 26-foot three point jumper109–101
- Q441.1Bucks Full timeout109–101
- Q441.1Jake LaRavia makes free throw 2 of 2109–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:10Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (GG Jackson assists)MEM 96 – 90 MIL · MEM 65% → 80% +16MEM 65% → 80%+16 pts
- Q42:48Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Pat Connaughton assists)MEM 99 – 97 MIL · MIL 22% → 36% +15MIL 22% → 36%+15 pts
- Q42:25Jaren Jackson Jr. makes driving layupMEM 101 – 97 MIL · MEM 65% → 80% +15MEM 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q42:10Brook Lopez makes 11-foot two point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MEM 101 – 99 MIL · MIL 18% → 34% +16MIL 18% → 34%+16 pts
- Q41:52GG Jackson makes 1-foot layup (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 103 – 99 MIL · MEM 68% → 84% +16MEM 68% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6.5
- MIL 75%
- Fair odds
- MIL -166
- MEM +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 108.8 – 112.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1345 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −34 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +187 Elo | MIL 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 62.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 120.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 116.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.2 | Margin | +3.47th of 30 |
| 30th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 117.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 113.716th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.0 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–517th of 30 |
| 20th of 3017–22 | Road vs home | 29–83rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MEM 1–0 MIL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.