Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Gary Trent Jr.Points31
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists9
- Immanuel QuickleyRebounds11
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints36
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Bobby PortisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–111
- Q42.1RJ Barrett makes free throw 2 of 2117–111
- Q42.1RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2116–111
- Q42.1Pat Connaughton personal foul115–111
- Q43.1Ochai Agbaji defensive rebound115–111
- Q45.1Malik Beasley misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot115–111
- Q48.0Pat Connaughton offensive rebound115–111
- Q410.1AJ Green misses 25-foot three point jumper115–111
- Q414.2Jalen McDaniels enters the game for Kelly Olynyk115–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:15Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 100 – 98 MIL · TOR 35% → 50% +16TOR 35% → 50%+16 pts
- Q45:03Gary Trent Jr. makes 30-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 104 – 102 MIL · TOR 35% → 54% +19TOR 35% → 54%+19 pts
- Q44:02RJ Barrett makes 3-foot two point shot (Kelly Olynyk assists)TOR 106 – 104 MIL · TOR 42% → 57% +14TOR 42% → 57%+14 pts
- Q41:34Bobby Portis makes two point shotTOR 110 – 108 MIL · MIL 15% → 32% +17MIL 15% → 32%+17 pts
- Q454.1Khris Middleton makes 24-foot step back jumpshotTOR 113 – 111 MIL · MIL 4% → 25% +22MIL 4% → 25%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bucks 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -9
- MIL 81%
- Fair odds
- MIL -297
- TOR +297 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 112.3 – 120.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1344 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −88 | −66 | TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +252 Elo | MIL 81.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 74.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 74.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30112.3 | Points scored | 120.03rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 116.822nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−6.4 | Margin | +3.28th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 116.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.7 | Defense rating | 113.717th of 30 |
| 12th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–27 | Road vs home | 29–94th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−88 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.