Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints25
- Marcus SasserAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints37
- Joel EmbiidAssists8
- Tobias HarrisRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–120
- Q42.1shot clock turnover102–120
- Q426.1James Wiseman makes free throw 2 of 2102–120
- Q426.1James Wiseman makes free throw 1 of 2101–120
- Q426.1Mo Bamba shooting foul100–120
- Q439.1Chimezie Metu defensive rebound100–120
- Q442.1Mo Bamba misses 17-foot jumper100–120
- Q453.0Malachi Flynn makes 26-foot three pointer100–120
- Q457.1Terquavion Smith personal foul97–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:40Marcus Sasser makes 23-foot step back jumpshotDET 67 – 71 PHI · DET 12% → 18% +6DET 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q37:06Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 70 – 71 PHI · DET 18% → 25% +7DET 18% → 25%+7 pts
- Q35:42Joel Embiid makes two point shotDET 70 – 73 PHI · PHI 74% → 79% +5PHI 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q34:19Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 1-foot dunk (Cameron Payne assists)DET 72 – 77 PHI · PHI 79% → 84% +5PHI 79% → 84%+5 pts
- Q31:09Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jeff Dowtin Jr. assists)DET 76 – 86 PHI · PHI 88% → 93% +5PHI 88% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -10.5
- PHI 85%
- Fair odds
- PHI -460
- DET +460 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 104.2 – 115.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1329 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −41 | +44 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +296 Elo | PHI 84.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 81.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 82.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 114.515th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 112.09th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | +2.511th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 114.714th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 112.112th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 99.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–33 | Road vs home | 22–1616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−41 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−22 Elo
76ers
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–3 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.