Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints52
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Paul ReedRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints33
- Tre JonesAssists9
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game133–126
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime133–126
- 2OT7.0shot clock turnover133–126
- 2OT28.1Nicolas Batum defensive rebound133–126
- 2OT30.1Tre Jones misses 22-foot three point shot133–126
- 2OT36.0Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound133–126
- 2OT38.0Tyrese Maxey misses 17-foot two point shot133–126
- 2OT59.1Victor Wembanyama bad pass (Ricky Council IV steals)133–126
- 2OT1:09Spurs Full timeout133–126
- 2OT1:09KJ Martin makes 3-foot dunk (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)133–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49.1Nicolas Batum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 109 – 108 SA · PHI 3% → 82% +79PHI 3% → 82%+79 pts
- Q42.1Julian Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)PHI 109 – 111 SA · SA 3% → >99% +97SA 3% → >99%+97 pts
- Q40.2Tyrese Maxey makes layup (Nicolas Batum assists)PHI 111 – 111 SA · PHI 0% → 50% +50PHI 0% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:10Devonte' Graham makes 25-foot three pointer (Victor Wembanyama assists)PHI 119 – 121 SA · SA 38% → 75% +38SA 38% → 75%+38 pts
- OT24.1KJ Martin makes 1-foot dunk (Ricky Council IV assists)PHI 121 – 121 SA · PHI 12% → 50% +37PHI 12% → 50%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Spurs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1.5
- SA 56%
- Fair odds
- SA -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 109.8 – 111.4 SA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1405 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −40 | +30 | PHI: Missing Tobias Harris −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +44 Elo | SA 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 55.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 112.122nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.8 | Points allowed | 119.025th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.5 | Margin | −6.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 108.525th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3099.2 | Pace | 102.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3021–19 | Road vs home | 10–2827th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−40 Elo- Tobias Harris left knee contusion−13 Elo
Spurs
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 SA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.