Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints30
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Assists5
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Grizzlies- Scotty Pippen Jr.Points24
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists5
- Maozinha PereiraRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–96
- Q41.1shot clock turnover116–96
- Q425.1Terquavion Smith makes two point shot (Ricky Council IV assists)116–96
- Q428.2Maozinha Pereira lost ball turnover (Ricky Council IV steals)114–96
- Q434.1Trey Jemison offensive rebound114–96
- Q436.1Zavier Simpson misses two point shot114–96
- Q448.1Maozinha Pereira defensive rebound114–96
- Q451.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses 25-foot step back jumpshot114–96
- Q41:11Zavier Simpson makes 25-foot three pointer114–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:14Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 3 – 0 MEM · PHI 63% → 69% +6PHI 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q110:09Joel Embiid makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 8 – 2 MEM · PHI 69% → 74% +5PHI 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q15:30Jordan Goodwin makes 23-foot step back jumpshotPHI 14 – 12 MEM · MEM 28% → 33% +6MEM 28% → 33%+6 pts
- Q14:37Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 19 – 12 MEM · PHI 71% → 76% +6PHI 71% → 76%+6 pts
- Q12:19Buddy Hield makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)PHI 24 – 19 MEM · PHI 66% → 72% +6PHI 66% → 72%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
76ers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -5
- PHI 70%
- Fair odds
- PHI -173
- MEM +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 107.5 – 103.4 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +35 | +15 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Missing Lamar Stevens −3 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +146 Elo | PHI 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 106.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 112.611th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 105.530th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 18th of 3099.2 | Pace | 99.916th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 14th of 3020–19 | Road vs home | 9–2828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+15 Elo- Lamar Stevens sore left groin−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 MEM in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.