Detroit Pistons at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints31
- Malachi FlynnAssists6
- Jalen DurenRebounds10
Grizzlies- Trey Jemison IIIPoints17
- Scotty Pippen Jr.Assists7
- Trey Jemison IIIRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game90–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter90–108
- Q44.1shot clock turnover90–108
- Q426.1Maozinha Pereira defensive rebound90–108
- Q428.1Buddy Boeheim misses 23-foot three point jumper90–108
- Q430.1Chimezie Metu offensive rebound90–108
- Q432.1Jared Rhoden misses 10-foot pullup jump shot90–108
- Q443.0Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 6-foot two point shot90–108
- Q41:03Jaylen Nowell makes dunk (Chimezie Metu assists)90–106
- Q41:04Scotty Pippen Jr. lost ball turnover (Chimezie Metu steals)88–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:34Jaden Ivey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tosan Evbuomwan assists)DET 6 – 4 MEM · DET 31% → 37% +6DET 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q17:36GG Jackson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)DET 8 – 9 MEM · MEM 63% → 69% +6MEM 63% → 69%+6 pts
- Q17:17Jaden Ivey makes 25-foot three pointer (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 11 – 9 MEM · DET 31% → 37% +6DET 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q15:53Jaden Ivey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Troy Brown Jr. assists)DET 16 – 13 MEM · DET 33% → 40% +6DET 33% → 40%+6 pts
- Q11:47GG Jackson makes 29-foot three pointerDET 22 – 24 MEM · MEM 64% → 70% +6MEM 64% → 70%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Grizzlies 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3
- MEM 62%
- Fair odds
- MEM -210
- DET +210 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 105.3 – 110.9 MEM
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1343 | 1364 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −51 | −22 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −22 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +85 Elo | MEM 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 67.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.6 | Points scored | 106.030th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 112.912th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.8 | Margin | −6.925th of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.2 | Offense rating | 105.430th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 112.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.7 | Pace | 100.016th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–31 | Road vs home | 8–2828th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−51 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee−22 Elo
Grizzlies
−22 Elo- Brandon Clarke achilles−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–2 MEM in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.