Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Chimezie MetuPoints20
- Jaden IveyAssists10
- Chimezie MetuRebounds7
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints32
- Dennis SchroderAssists6
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–113
- Q419.2Lonnie Walker IV defensive rebound103–113
- Q423.0Troy Brown Jr. misses 24-foot three point shot103–113
- Q425.0Lonnie Walker IV enters the game for Dennis Schroder103–113
- Q425.0Pistons Full timeout103–113
- Q425.0Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2103–113
- Q425.0Day'Ron Sharpe enters the game for Nic Claxton103–112
- Q425.0Trendon Watford enters the game for Cam Thomas103–112
- Q425.0Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2103–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:44Buddy Boeheim makes 26-foot three point jumper (Malachi Flynn assists)DET 86 – 75 BKN · DET 69% → 79% +10DET 69% → 79%+10 pts
- Q44:28Noah Clowney makes 24-foot three point shot (Dennis Schroder assists)DET 103 – 99 BKN · BKN 16% → 32% +16BKN 16% → 32%+16 pts
- Q43:38Nic Claxton makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (Cam Thomas assists)DET 103 – 101 BKN · BKN 28% → 42% +14BKN 28% → 42%+14 pts
- Q42:54Dennis Schroder makes 29-foot three point jumperDET 103 – 104 BKN · BKN 40% → 65% +25BKN 40% → 65%+25 pts
- Q41:46Dennis Schroder makes 11-foot pullup jump shotDET 103 – 108 BKN · BKN 83% → 93% +10BKN 83% → 93%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -8
- BKN 79%
- Fair odds
- BKN -305
- DET +305 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 104.4 – 112.9 BKN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −50 | −27 | DET: Missing Cade Cunningham −26, Jalen Duren −14 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BKN +231 Elo | BKN 79.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 111.224th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 113.716th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −2.522nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30108.0 | Offense rating | 111.822nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 114.321st of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.7 | Pace | 98.821st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 30th of 306–32 | Road vs home | 18–2023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
−50 Elo- Cade Cunningham left knee injury management−26 Elo
- Jalen Duren sprained left ankle−14 Elo
Nets
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 1–2 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.