Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints21
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Kevin LoveRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–92
- Q418.1A.J. Lawson defensive rebound111–92
- Q420.1Cole Swider misses 23-foot three point jumper111–92
- Q427.1Brandon Williams makes two point shot (Jaden Hardy assists)111–92
- Q430.1Jaden Hardy defensive rebound109–92
- Q433.0Alondes Williams misses two point shot109–92
- Q443.0Jaden Hardy turnover109–92
- Q443.0Jaden Hardy offensive foul109–92
- Q446.0Mavericks offensive team rebound109–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:27Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)DAL 20 – 21 MIA · MIA 45% → 52% +7MIA 45% → 52%+7 pts
- Q13:04Dante Exum makes 22-foot jump bank shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DAL 23 – 21 MIA · DAL 48% → 55% +7DAL 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q12:44Kyrie Irving makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Dante Exum assists)DAL 26 – 21 MIA · DAL 55% → 61% +7DAL 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q11:23Patty Mills makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)DAL 26 – 24 MIA · MIA 38% → 45% +7MIA 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q48:44Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)DAL 94 – 86 MIA · MIA 9% → 16% +7MIA 9% → 16%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- DAL 53%
- Fair odds
- DAL -100
- MIA +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 108.9 – 108.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1612 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIA and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +37 | +35 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +24 Elo | DAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30118.7 | Points scored | 110.127th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 108.54th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.9 | Margin | +1.616th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 110.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.9 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–15 | Road vs home | 20–1818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.