Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints33
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists9
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds8
Hawks- Dejounte MurrayPoints29
- Dejounte MurrayAssists13
- Dejounte MurrayRebounds13
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game117–111
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime117–111
- 2OT1.1Clint Capela makes 13-foot two point shot117–111
- 2OT3.1Clint Capela offensive rebound117–109
- 2OT6.1Vit Krejci misses 23-foot three point jumper117–109
- 2OT15.1Haywood Highsmith makes dunk (Bam Adebayo assists)117–109
- 2OT23.2Jimmy Butler defensive rebound115–109
- 2OT28.0Dejounte Murray misses 25-foot three point jumper115–109
- 2OT29.0De'Andre Hunter offensive rebound115–109
- 2OT32.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 24-foot three point jumper115–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:48Jimmy Butler makes 22-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)MIA 94 – 92 ATL · MIA 48% → 65% +18MIA 48% → 65%+18 pts
- Q42:12Dejounte Murray makes 16-foot pullup jump shotMIA 98 – 99 ATL · ATL 38% → 57% +19ATL 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q417.0Dejounte Murray makes driving layupMIA 101 – 101 ATL · ATL 8% → 49% +41ATL 8% → 49%+41 pts
- OT2:38Nikola Jovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 104 – 105 ATL · MIA 20% → 44% +23MIA 20% → 44%+23 pts
- OT46.1Haywood Highsmith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)MIA 107 – 107 ATL · MIA 11% → 51% +40MIA 11% → 51%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Heat 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 64%
- Fair odds
- MIA -154
- ATL +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.7 – 108.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +38 | −10 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | ATL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +97 Elo | MIA 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 60.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.0 | Points scored | 118.76th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 120.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −1.620th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 115.69th of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 117.227th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 102.05th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 9th of 3023–17 | Road vs home | 21–1817th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 ATL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.