Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints27
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints22
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Myles TurnerRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–117
- Q43.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Kevin Love115–117
- Q43.1Caleb Martin enters the game for Duncan Robinson115–117
- Q43.1T.J. McConnell enters the game for Jalen Smith115–117
- Q43.1Tyrese Haliburton enters the game for Isaiah Jackson115–117
- Q43.1Kevin Love turnover (lane violation)115–117
- Q43.1Kevin Love enters the game for Nikola Jovic115–117
- Q43.1Jalen Smith enters the game for T.J. McConnell115–117
- Q43.1Isaiah Jackson enters the game for Andrew Nembhard115–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:56Tyrese Haliburton makes two point shotMIA 101 – 105 IND · IND 68% → 81% +13IND 68% → 81%+13 pts
- Q42:15Caleb Martin makes 3-foot layup (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 103 – 105 IND · MIA 16% → 31% +14MIA 16% → 31%+14 pts
- Q41:58Pascal Siakam makes driving layup (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIA 103 – 107 IND · IND 71% → 85% +15IND 71% → 85%+15 pts
- Q41:13Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 108 – 111 IND · MIA 2% → 16% +13MIA 2% → 16%+13 pts
- Q411.1Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler assists)MIA 114 – 115 IND · MIA <1% → 20% +20MIA <1% → 20%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Pacers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- IND 57%
- Fair odds
- IND -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.9 – 112.5 IND
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +22 | +20 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +50 Elo | IND 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30109.9 | Points scored | 122.61st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.4 | Points allowed | 120.327th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +2.314th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 118.22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 115.924th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.8 | Pace | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–16 | Road vs home | 24–1514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 IND in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.