Dallas Mavericks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Luka DoncicPoints33
- Luka DoncicAssists6
- Luka DoncicRebounds13
Clippers- James HardenPoints28
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–109
- Q421.1Ivica Zubac defensive rebound97–109
- Q424.0Jaden Hardy misses 24-foot step back jumpshot97–109
- Q435.0Paul George makes 23-foot jump bank shot97–109
- Q453.1Josh Green makes free throw 2 of 297–107
- Q453.1Ivica Zubac enters the game for Amir Coffey96–107
- Q453.1Josh Green makes free throw 1 of 296–107
- Q453.1Jaden Hardy enters the game for Luka Doncic95–107
- Q453.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Maxi Kleber95–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:19Russell Westbrook makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)DAL 13 – 21 LAC · LAC 51% → 58% +7LAC 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q13:44James Harden makes 25-foot step back jumpshotDAL 15 – 24 LAC · LAC 54% → 61% +7LAC 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q13:15Luka Doncic makes 28-foot step back jumpshotDAL 18 – 24 LAC · DAL 39% → 46% +7DAL 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q11:37James Harden makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 20 – 29 LAC · LAC 55% → 61% +7LAC 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q12.0James Harden makes 28-foot step back jumpshotDAL 22 – 34 LAC · LAC 62% → 69% +7LAC 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Mavericks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4
- DAL 66%
- Fair odds
- DAL -154
- LAC +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 114.5 – 111.3 LAC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1580 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −77 | DAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +113 Elo | DAL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 115.612th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 112.310th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +3.37th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 116.74th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.020th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–16 | Road vs home | 25–1612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DAL 1–2 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.